The Content Calculus: What Three Potential Streaming Mergers Reveal About Warner Bros. Discovery’s Future
Key InsightsThe Warner Brothers Discovery (WBD) acquisition reveals very different strategic upsides for the three reported bidders once you dig into the US catalog data:
The same catalog unlocks three different advantages:
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As Warner Bros. Discovery fields acquisition offers with a December 1 deadline for second-round bids, the entertainment industry is watching closely.
Paramount Skydance, Netflix, and Comcast have each submitted proposals, with varying strategies: Paramount Skydance seeks to acquire WBD in its entirety, while Netflix and Comcast are primarily interested in the Warner Bros. streaming and studio operations (Variety).
But beyond the financial engineering and regulatory considerations lies a more fundamental question: What would each merger mean for content?
Warner Bros. Discovery is in the process of separating its businesses, with HBO Max and the studio operations forming one company, while Discovery+ and the linear networks will comprise another entity (Variety).
Reports indicate that Discovery+ will be part of the separate Global Networks business, meaning any acquisition would center on HBO Max’s content library. This makes it crucial to understand exactly what each potential partner would bring to the table.
Using Reelgood’s comprehensive streaming movie and TV metadata database, which tracks real-time title availability across all major platforms, we analyzed three hypothetical merger scenarios to understand the content implications. The results reveal surprising differences in library scale, content overlap, and strategic complementarity.
Understanding the Landscape: HBO Max’s Starting Point
Before examining merger scenarios, it’s important to understand what Warner Bros. Discovery brings to the table.
HBO Max currently houses 2,283 movies and 1,815 TV shows. This represents a mid-sized library by streaming standards, but one known for premium content and HBO’s prestige programming. Reports indicate that Discovery+ (with 423 movies and 1,855 shows) is being separated from the Warner Bros. streaming and studios business, meaning it won’t be part of any acquisition.
This distinction matters because Discovery+ has historically focused on non-fiction, reality, and lifestyle content, serving a different audience and programming strategy than HBO Max’s premium scripted entertainment. Any merger analysis must therefore focus solely on HBO Max’s library and how it would combine with potential partners.
Comparative movie library sizes across streaming services. HBO Max represents WBD’s streaming content, while reports indicate Discovery+ will be separated into a different entity. Note how Paramount Skydance’s massive library is driven primarily by Pluto TV’s free streaming catalog.
Comparative TV library sizes across streaming services. HBO Max represents WBD’s streaming content, while reports indicate Discovery+ will be separated into a different entity. Note how Paramount Skydance’s massive library is driven primarily by Pluto TV’s free streaming catalog.
Among the three companies currently in acquisition discussions, the standalone libraries vary significantly:
- Netflix operates 4,358 movies and 3,173 TV shows
- Paramount Skydance (combining Paramount+ and Pluto TV) commands a massive 15,297 movies and 3,635 shows
- Comcast’s Peacock has 1,179 movies and 1,406 shows
But raw library size tells only part of the story. The strategic question is: how much unique content would each merger create?
Side-by-side comparison of three potential merger scenarios, showing WBD’s movie library, each partner’s movie library, the combined total (with duplicates removed), and the overlap between services.
Side-by-side comparison of three potential merger scenarios, showing WBD’s TV library, each partner’s TV library, the combined total (with duplicates removed), and the overlap between services.
Scenario 1: The Netflix Path (Adds the Most New Titles)
A combination between HBO Max and Netflix would create a combined library of 6,629 movies and 4,970 TV shows. This isn’t the largest of the three scenarios, but it demonstrates remarkable content complementarity.
The data reveals that HBO Max and Netflix share only 12 movies and 18 TV shows in common.
That’s an overlap rate of just 0.4% for films and 0.6% for series, the lowest redundancy of any scenario analyzed.
What this means strategically: Netflix and HBO Max have pursued fundamentally different content strategies. Netflix has invested heavily in its original productions and international content, while HBO Max leverages Warner Bros.’ theatrical library and HBO’s premium programming. A merger would give the combined entity an exceptionally diverse catalog with minimal duplicate licensing costs.
The low overlap also suggests that subscribers to one service are likely seeking content they can’t find on the other.
This means a combined platform would offer substantial incremental value to users currently subscribing to either service individually.
Scenario 2: The Paramount Skydance Play (Adding Quality)
The Paramount Skydance scenario presents a dramatically different picture: a combined library of 17,374 movies and 5,325 TV shows, more than 2.5 times the size of the Netflix scenario.
This scale advantage comes primarily from Pluto TV, the free ad-supported streaming service owned by Paramount that houses over 14,000 movies alone.
When combined with Paramount+’s premium content and HBO Max’s library, the result would be the largest streaming content catalog among major U.S. platforms.
Content overlap is higher here (206 movies at 7.6% and 125 TV shows at 3.4%) but remains relatively modest given the massive scale.
With over 17,000 combined titles, even several hundred duplicates represent a small fraction of the overall library.
What this means strategically: This merger would create a content behemoth spanning premium scripted content (HBO), blockbuster films (Warner Bros. and Paramount Pictures), prestige television (Paramount+), and mass-market AVOD inventory (Pluto TV). The combined entity would serve multiple audience segments and business models under one corporate umbrella.
However, the overlap, while low in percentage terms, does represent some redundancy in popular catalog titles that both services currently license.
These 206 duplicate films and 125 duplicate series would present opportunities for cost savings by eliminating duplicate licensing deals.
Scenario 3: The Comcast Option (Catalog Catch-Up)
Comcast/Peacock starts from the smallest catalog position among the three bidders – less than half the size of Netflix’s. Acquiring Warner Bros Discovery would dramatically expand that footprint.
Even with the highest overlap with WBD (14.8% of movies and 6.2% of shows), Peacock sees the largest proportional lift: a 189% increase in movies and a 123% increase in shows.
The combined catalog would total 3,287 movies and 3,134 shows. That puts the post-acquisition Peacock at 75% of Netflix’s movie count (3,287 vs. 4,358) and nearly equal on shows (3,134 vs. 3,173).
They wouldn’t surpass Netflix, but they would narrow a gap that today is too large to close organically.
The higher overlap isn’t accidental — both NBCUniversal and Warner Bros are legacy Hollywood studios with long-standing, similar licensing patterns.
That shared DNA could make the integration more straightforward and create cost-saving opportunities by consolidating redundant licensing arrangements and rationalizing windowing strategies.
What this means strategically: If Comcast moves forward, this acquisition is the fastest way to solve its scale problem. It doesn’t give Peacock the biggest combined catalog, but it instantly transforms them from the smallest player into a competitive one, closing a gap they can’t bridge without Warner Bros Discovery.
Understanding Content Overlap
When two streaming services share titles, it typically reflects popular catalog content that multiple platforms have licensed: classic films, widely syndicated TV series, or library content from major studios.
Low overlap suggests highly differentiated catalogs that would give a combined entity more unique content to offer subscribers. High overlap may indicate redundant licensing costs and less incremental value from the merger.
In this analysis, the variation is striking. Netflix’s 0.4% movie overlap with HBO Max suggests two services with almost completely distinct film strategies.
Meanwhile, Peacock’s 14.8% movie overlap with HBO Max reflects two legacy studios drawing from similar content pools and licensing similar catalog titles.
What Content Scale Reveals About Strategic Fit
These three scenarios illustrate a fundamental tension in streaming M&A: scale versus complementarity.
The Paramount Skydance path offers overwhelming scale, a content library that would dwarf competitors. But it also requires integrating vastly different business models (AVOD vs. SVOD) and audience segments (Pluto TV’s free content vs. HBO’s premium positioning).
The Netflix path offers the strongest content complementarity, with virtually no overlap between libraries. A combined Netflix-HBO Max would give subscribers access to two highly differentiated content strategies under one roof. But it would also unite the #1 streaming platform by subscriber count with a major premium competitor, raising significant antitrust questions.
The Comcast path offers the most operationally straightforward integration: two legacy media companies with similar structures and strategies. But it delivers the least incremental content value to subscribers.
Notably, none of these scenarios accounts for the full complexity of a merger: international rights (content availability varies by region), sports rights (a major consideration for all three companies), original production pipelines, or technology platform integration.
But when it comes to pure content (the fundamental product that subscribers pay for), the data shows stark differences in what each merger would deliver.
The Metadata Advantage: Why This Analysis Matters
This analysis is only possible because of comprehensive, real-time streaming movie and TV metadata that tracks not just which titles exist, but where they’re available, under which business models, and with what degree of overlap between platforms.
For executives evaluating M&A scenarios, content analysis like this is foundational:
- For acquirers: Understanding exactly what content you’re buying and how much is redundant with your existing library informs valuation and integration planning
- For content strategists: Identifying gaps in combined libraries reveals where to prioritize future licensing or original production investments
- For product teams: Knowing the incremental content value helps model subscriber retention and cross-platform migration scenarios
As the streaming industry matures and consolidation accelerates, the companies with the best data (not just about their own catalogs, but about the entire competitive landscape) will make smarter strategic decisions.
Looking Ahead
Warner Bros. Discovery has asked for higher second-round acquisition bids due December 1, with the goal of deciding the way forward before the end of 2025. Whether the company ultimately accepts one of these offers or proceeds with its planned separation into two entities, content will remain at the heart of the decision.
The data shows that each potential merger would create a fundamentally different content proposition:
- Paramount Skydance: Maximum scale across all business models
- Netflix: Maximum complementarity with minimal overlap
- Comcast/Peacock: Operational simplicity with modest incremental value
But content libraries are just one factor in complex M&A decisions involving regulatory approval, debt structures, international operations, sports rights, and corporate culture.
What’s clear is that in an industry built on content, understanding exactly what you’re combining (title by title, platform by platform) is no longer optional. It’s the foundation of strategic decision-making.
Unlock Strategic Intelligence for Your M&A Decisions
Reelgood’s streaming metadata database indexes over 280,000 movies and nearly 68,000 TV shows across multiple markets, tracking real-time availability, business models, and platform overlaps.
Whether you’re evaluating acquisition targets, identifying content gaps in your library, or building competitive intelligence for strategic planning, we provide the title-level data and market insights you need to make informed decisions.
For M&A and Corporate Development Teams:
- Analyze title-by-title overlap for any platform combination
- Map geographic availability to identify licensing opportunities
- Support business model tracking (SVOD/AVOD/TVOD) across markets
- Perform competitive library benchmarking and gap analysis
For Content Strategy and Licensing Teams:
- See where a given title has historically been available to stream
- Compare your catalog to your competitors to find strategic opportunities
- Find high-demand titles missing from your platform, tagged by genre and availability
- Identify second-window acquisition opportunities from competitor libraries
- Perform international rights analysis to optimize global catalog monetization
For Rights Management Teams
- Monitor where your own titles are streaming
- Ensure tiles are only available where and when they’ve been licensed
For Analytics Teams:
- Correlate user engagement signals with content availability
- Analyze cross-platform viewing behavior
- Track catalog performance metrics to inform retention strategies
Contact our team to discuss your specific needs, or reach out directly at sales@reelgood.com.
In a rapidly consolidating industry, the winners will be those with the best maps of the streaming landscape, not just where content is today, but where the gaps and opportunities lie.
Data sources: Reelgood Streaming Movie & TV Metadata & Title Availability Database, November 2025. WBD defined as HBO Max only; reports indicate Discovery+ is excluded as it will be part of the separate Global Networks entity. Paramount Skydance figures include both Paramount+ and Pluto TV.
